![]() ![]() ![]() Similarly, Snap Spectacles (not smartglasses) and Google Glass highlighted some of the consumer challenges for high tech goggles. It’s also early days for consumer smartglasses startups like nReal, despite CEO Chi Xu describing it as a “cell phone companion” taking a different approach to Google Glass, HoloLens and Magic Leap. Magic Leap pivoted away from the consumer market, with former CEO Rony Abovitz saying, “While our leadership team, board, and investors still believe in the long-term potential of our IP, the near-term revenue opportunities are currently concentrated on the enterprise side”. But as we’ve said many times, only Tim Cook and his inner circle really know if and when Apple’s going to enter. If Apple launches smartphone-tethered smartglasses as an iPhone peripheral in late 2022, as Digi-Capital forecasts, we’ll get a better idea of what consumer smartglasses Daily Active Users (DAU) could look like. While there is a dedicated core of active VR users, there aren’t enough casual users to scale VR as a platform yet. When describing ambitions for Facebook Horizon, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said “Horizon is going to have this property where it just expands and gets better.” Yet scale remains a question. Also the social side of VR hasn’t scaled – even Facebook announced it was starting again from scratch with a totally new social VR platform late last year. One of the challenges for VR is a primary entertainment focus (games, video), which despite its immersion can be done more easily and cheaply on existing devices. VR has different user dynamics, partly because of a lack of plurality, but mainly due to user attrition. However, this enables direct comparison between different platform types and platforms.) ![]() (Note: total figures for active installed base types inherently involve double counting, exaggerating total figures due to users active on more than one platform. This could see all mobile AR platforms combined active installed base over 2.7 billion in 5 years’ time. Looking to the long-term, Digi-Capital forecasts messaging-based mobile AR’s active installed base to top 1.5 billion by 2024, OS based mobile AR over 1 billion by 2024, followed by web-based mobile AR (at a much higher growth rate). However, ByteDance is now dealing with different challenges across several fronts. This was a significant factor in TikTok owner ByteDance (also owner of Chinese messaging platform Douyin) being reported by Reuters to have 130% revenue growth to $5.6 billion in Q1 2020. For example, ByteDance’s TikTok use grew 130% in the first week of March for a weekly total over 3 billion hours due to both higher user numbers and average time per session. Mobile AR can now claim to be a consumer platform, with Digi-Capital forecasting over 1 billion active installed base across messaging-based, OS-based, and web-based mobile AR platforms in 2020. ![]()
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